Excellent documentation of the global cascading failures, but the core reveal is simple: “drop the bombs and see what happens” and it isn’t a bug, it’s the entire strategy.
800+ Patriots burned in three days while Ukraine gets strangled. Russia providing Iran targeting intel while Trump refuses to criticize Putin.
China, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea all watching US deplete air defenses and abandon allies—-recalculating accordingly. Spain and France breaking publicly, Europe accelerating post-American planning. Qatari LNG offline breaking global gas markets. Gulf civilian infrastructure burning.
None of this was anticipated because none of it mattered to the decision calculus. Oligarchical corridor optimizes for demonstration of unconstrained power and extraction opportunities, not strategic outcomes.
Collateral damage to Ukraine, European alliances, Asian deterrence, global energy markets, Iranian civilians, American credibility? That’s not failure of planning. That’s what happens when authority redesigns itself to operate without institutional constraints, strategic planning, or accountability for outcomes.
The war has no clear endgame because chaos is the endgame. Creates dependencies, justifies emergency powers, generates opportunities for positioned actors. Spectacle over outcomes, extraction over strategy.
I hold no brief for Iran and other tyrannical regimes, most notably Putin’s, Xi’s and Kim’s among others. Trump-Netanyahu might-makes-right is an expedience that ignores history that has given rise to West-hating regimes such as Iran’s Islamic Republic and the Palestinian’s Hamas born of injustices perpetrated upon their people. To Donald and Bibi, lives are expendable as long as it’s not the lives of one of their own, i.e. within their personal orbits. Better the long path of diplomacy that would recognize, acknowledge and negotiate a way to rectify those long-ago injustices and not take other people’s lives along the way.
In the meantime, it is anguishingly infuriating to watch Ukraine, an ally, who shares America’s original aspirations and values, that people like I share, abandoned to the self aggrandizing vanity of a brat, who throws his (over)-weight around abusing his personal wealth, and the military and economic power of his country to game the Rule of Law and upend the Rules Based World Order. His legacy will be the reduced power and influence and shameful image of the United States of America - and justifiably so. The contrast in leadership and values are Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Kaja Kallas; may Ukraine and Europe take up the torch the US has sickenly abandoned and evolve to eventually hold enough military and economic power to preserve Ukraine and Europe and bring the Authoritarians to account - think Nuremberg…
Let's add Canada's PM Mark Carney and Finland's President Alexander Stubb to the leaders with the values we hope to see in our country. The values that will eliminate the oligarchy and corruption that the current POTUS oversees.
“Drop the bombs and see what happens” seems to be their lazy, incompetent version of wagging the dog. In simpler times authoritarians would at least attempt to propagandize and manufacture consent for war in advance. These goons don’t even bother, because they know how tribal their cult is.
They know they can chalk it up as a Jesus-is-Coming or Bomb-the-Brown-People campaign and the MAGAs will jump on board, frothing. That’s all he cares about… and the prospect of building hotels and casinos with a friendly regime, of course.
Thank you, Anne Applebaum. You’re one of my North Stars when it comes to maintaining perspective in these maddening times.
Additionally appreciated are the photos from the Mount Vernon Presidential Library. Those volumes of Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire are a meaningful, tangible connection to George Washington, his vision and leadership at the inception of our Democracy. What a foil to the vain, self-aggrandizing bully that is Trump. More in my comment to Johan’s above.
What I would like to know is why senior US military leaders, Gen Dan Caine and others, so willingly pulled the trigger without any strategic purpose? I’ve read a lot of articles in The Atlantic and The New Yorker that conclude “it’s spaghetti thrown against the wall”. Susan Glasser has an excellent and biting column in the most recent NYer about the sheer stupidity of Trump, Hegseth and the team of imbeciles creating this world wide “shit show”.
I hope the commenter at Financial Times, by "they," refers to the jackasses at the head of our gov't & not to the citizens as a whole. It feels positively shameful to be an American right now, knowing that I never voted for this, cannot really make sense of it, certainly do not support it & yet I can do nothing about it. Believe me, I understand quite well the ridiculousness of the statements & behavior of our president & hope that everyone else in the world impedes his actions in every way possible. No one should give in to the deranged demands of this clown. I sincerely apologize to the world.
If you actually read what I write, you will know that I have been opposed to the Iranian regime for years. That doesn't mean that a thoughtless, chaotic plan to destroy it will necessarily produce something better.
A great summation of the effect of the republican administration's policy decisions on the world as a whole. However, this fact based argument is not making it to the ultimate decision makers who are the voters.
The voters have to be educated in the facts that these decisions are being made in their name in order to support decisions that have not worked in the past and will not work in the future. These decisions are taking resources away from US citizens at home and putting the profits in the hands of the war materiel industry (the Epstein class).
It is not just trump. It is the entire republican party, including the SCOTUS Six. that have encouraged and enabled these policies with their active and passive approval of all of the decisions that brought us to this point over the past three decades.
Without setting the record straight by emphasizing the reasons behind the present policies, the American people will continue to be susceptible to the misinformation and disinformation of the republicans allowing them to continue their wars of choice and destruction of our US Constitution.
Maduro’s corrupt #2 still there to help our fav draft dodger ‘get his’ from the sale of Venezuelan oil & gold. Board o’ Piece of-the-action Chair is working Gaza, Iran’s next, Cuba in sight, don’t f’get Ukraine.
Anne, will you be able to comment on Scott Bessent's statement that in order to get oil flowing again the United States has removed/weakened sanctions on Russia?
Thank you again for a great piece Anne. Was a treat to receive a newsletter from you and the Polish Foreign Minister on the very same day ;-)
Whilst yourself and many of us are scratching our heads at the attack on Iran and the aftermath and uncertain future of it all, I had an exchange with a learned Israel friend from his family bunker today. It was stark to hear him talk about the bombing of Iran in terms much differently to how I see it and how you have communicated about it also. For Israeli's this war with Iran is an existential one for the future safety of Israel.
It seems clear to me that this war was launched as an operation of safety for Israel. However, because of his extreme narcissism, trump simply cannot admit that he is playing second fiddle to Israel. It is bizarrely childish and therefore sows confusion when we hear 5 different explanations for the war in about 5 days. For Israeli's the justification for the war and mission seem VERY clear. For the USA, who knows, grandstanding? I notice the attacks by this administration have clearly been against countries who can't or won't fight back for very long. And poor old Cuba is going to be next...yet Russia continually gets a pass. For the very same reasons trump has given for going to war with Iran the exact same reasoning should apply to Russia.
But the part you touched on that is inexplicable is the belligerence towards allies again. You start a war, a war nobody wanted, don't tell anyone about (e.g., Australia, Italy and others) and then get angry when they don't join in...it is truly bizarre and seems straight from the Stalin playbook...create and issue and when others don't play along berate them for it as if we all have to march to the same drum. It is truly bizarre. Why can't you take the same action you have and include and request support from your allies.
Soon, every day mums and dads in far off lands are going to be feeling it in the pocket as fuel prices rise and their retirement funds are wiped from the stock market. Support will continue to decline and disgust at the USA will rise...
Excellent documentation of the global cascading failures, but the core reveal is simple: “drop the bombs and see what happens” and it isn’t a bug, it’s the entire strategy.
800+ Patriots burned in three days while Ukraine gets strangled. Russia providing Iran targeting intel while Trump refuses to criticize Putin.
China, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea all watching US deplete air defenses and abandon allies—-recalculating accordingly. Spain and France breaking publicly, Europe accelerating post-American planning. Qatari LNG offline breaking global gas markets. Gulf civilian infrastructure burning.
None of this was anticipated because none of it mattered to the decision calculus. Oligarchical corridor optimizes for demonstration of unconstrained power and extraction opportunities, not strategic outcomes.
Collateral damage to Ukraine, European alliances, Asian deterrence, global energy markets, Iranian civilians, American credibility? That’s not failure of planning. That’s what happens when authority redesigns itself to operate without institutional constraints, strategic planning, or accountability for outcomes.
The war has no clear endgame because chaos is the endgame. Creates dependencies, justifies emergency powers, generates opportunities for positioned actors. Spectacle over outcomes, extraction over strategy.
—Johan
Exactly. Succinctly and well expressed, Johan.
I hold no brief for Iran and other tyrannical regimes, most notably Putin’s, Xi’s and Kim’s among others. Trump-Netanyahu might-makes-right is an expedience that ignores history that has given rise to West-hating regimes such as Iran’s Islamic Republic and the Palestinian’s Hamas born of injustices perpetrated upon their people. To Donald and Bibi, lives are expendable as long as it’s not the lives of one of their own, i.e. within their personal orbits. Better the long path of diplomacy that would recognize, acknowledge and negotiate a way to rectify those long-ago injustices and not take other people’s lives along the way.
In the meantime, it is anguishingly infuriating to watch Ukraine, an ally, who shares America’s original aspirations and values, that people like I share, abandoned to the self aggrandizing vanity of a brat, who throws his (over)-weight around abusing his personal wealth, and the military and economic power of his country to game the Rule of Law and upend the Rules Based World Order. His legacy will be the reduced power and influence and shameful image of the United States of America - and justifiably so. The contrast in leadership and values are Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Kaja Kallas; may Ukraine and Europe take up the torch the US has sickenly abandoned and evolve to eventually hold enough military and economic power to preserve Ukraine and Europe and bring the Authoritarians to account - think Nuremberg…
Let's add Canada's PM Mark Carney and Finland's President Alexander Stubb to the leaders with the values we hope to see in our country. The values that will eliminate the oligarchy and corruption that the current POTUS oversees.
Yes, by all means.
“Drop the bombs and see what happens” seems to be their lazy, incompetent version of wagging the dog. In simpler times authoritarians would at least attempt to propagandize and manufacture consent for war in advance. These goons don’t even bother, because they know how tribal their cult is.
They know they can chalk it up as a Jesus-is-Coming or Bomb-the-Brown-People campaign and the MAGAs will jump on board, frothing. That’s all he cares about… and the prospect of building hotels and casinos with a friendly regime, of course.
The MAGA cult is defending Trump by talking about how awful the Iranian regime is.
Yes, we heard that about Maduro, too. But Venezuela still has the Maduro regime.
Thank you, Anne Applebaum. You’re one of my North Stars when it comes to maintaining perspective in these maddening times.
Additionally appreciated are the photos from the Mount Vernon Presidential Library. Those volumes of Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire are a meaningful, tangible connection to George Washington, his vision and leadership at the inception of our Democracy. What a foil to the vain, self-aggrandizing bully that is Trump. More in my comment to Johan’s above.
What I would like to know is why senior US military leaders, Gen Dan Caine and others, so willingly pulled the trigger without any strategic purpose? I’ve read a lot of articles in The Atlantic and The New Yorker that conclude “it’s spaghetti thrown against the wall”. Susan Glasser has an excellent and biting column in the most recent NYer about the sheer stupidity of Trump, Hegseth and the team of imbeciles creating this world wide “shit show”.
I hope the commenter at Financial Times, by "they," refers to the jackasses at the head of our gov't & not to the citizens as a whole. It feels positively shameful to be an American right now, knowing that I never voted for this, cannot really make sense of it, certainly do not support it & yet I can do nothing about it. Believe me, I understand quite well the ridiculousness of the statements & behavior of our president & hope that everyone else in the world impedes his actions in every way possible. No one should give in to the deranged demands of this clown. I sincerely apologize to the world.
Trump is an abject failure in respect of Ukraine.
But destroying the Iranian regime is in the fundamental interest of the West. I am amazed this is not accepted by “liberals”.
The question really is will Trump stay the course. That means relentlessly eliminating the regime.
Iran cannot be Vietnam for Trump.
If you actually read what I write, you will know that I have been opposed to the Iranian regime for years. That doesn't mean that a thoughtless, chaotic plan to destroy it will necessarily produce something better.
47 years of appeasement and passivity towards the Iranian regime has not served the interests of the civilized world well, and especially the West.
"thoughless and chaotic" versus "thoughtless and supine" , see Obama,Biden, the Democratic Party.
We will see what ultimately serves Western interests best
Fault Trump for not applying the willingness to confront Putin in Ukraine with the same genuine intervention to enforce world order. I do.
But destruction of the regime should be recognized as an overdue necessity.
Pity the rest of the West cannot see as an existential necessity.
I agree that Iranian regime is awful. But it shows no sign at all of going anywhere.
A great summation of the effect of the republican administration's policy decisions on the world as a whole. However, this fact based argument is not making it to the ultimate decision makers who are the voters.
The voters have to be educated in the facts that these decisions are being made in their name in order to support decisions that have not worked in the past and will not work in the future. These decisions are taking resources away from US citizens at home and putting the profits in the hands of the war materiel industry (the Epstein class).
It is not just trump. It is the entire republican party, including the SCOTUS Six. that have encouraged and enabled these policies with their active and passive approval of all of the decisions that brought us to this point over the past three decades.
Without setting the record straight by emphasizing the reasons behind the present policies, the American people will continue to be susceptible to the misinformation and disinformation of the republicans allowing them to continue their wars of choice and destruction of our US Constitution.
Anne applebaum standing up for democracy giving us a clear picture of what is going on in America and abroad. Thanks
Thank you, Ms. Applebaum.
DT WANTS A DELCY FOR IRAN
Maduro’s corrupt #2 still there to help our fav draft dodger ‘get his’ from the sale of Venezuelan oil & gold. Board o’ Piece of-the-action Chair is working Gaza, Iran’s next, Cuba in sight, don’t f’get Ukraine.
Human cost: “That’s the way it is”
Anne, will you be able to comment on Scott Bessent's statement that in order to get oil flowing again the United States has removed/weakened sanctions on Russia?
Thank you again for a great piece Anne. Was a treat to receive a newsletter from you and the Polish Foreign Minister on the very same day ;-)
Whilst yourself and many of us are scratching our heads at the attack on Iran and the aftermath and uncertain future of it all, I had an exchange with a learned Israel friend from his family bunker today. It was stark to hear him talk about the bombing of Iran in terms much differently to how I see it and how you have communicated about it also. For Israeli's this war with Iran is an existential one for the future safety of Israel.
It seems clear to me that this war was launched as an operation of safety for Israel. However, because of his extreme narcissism, trump simply cannot admit that he is playing second fiddle to Israel. It is bizarrely childish and therefore sows confusion when we hear 5 different explanations for the war in about 5 days. For Israeli's the justification for the war and mission seem VERY clear. For the USA, who knows, grandstanding? I notice the attacks by this administration have clearly been against countries who can't or won't fight back for very long. And poor old Cuba is going to be next...yet Russia continually gets a pass. For the very same reasons trump has given for going to war with Iran the exact same reasoning should apply to Russia.
But the part you touched on that is inexplicable is the belligerence towards allies again. You start a war, a war nobody wanted, don't tell anyone about (e.g., Australia, Italy and others) and then get angry when they don't join in...it is truly bizarre and seems straight from the Stalin playbook...create and issue and when others don't play along berate them for it as if we all have to march to the same drum. It is truly bizarre. Why can't you take the same action you have and include and request support from your allies.
Soon, every day mums and dads in far off lands are going to be feeling it in the pocket as fuel prices rise and their retirement funds are wiped from the stock market. Support will continue to decline and disgust at the USA will rise...