Putin's War Comes Home
Even Muscovites feel it
Four years ago, President Vladimir Putin offered Moscow and its business elite a de facto deal: support my war in Ukraine, and in exchange you won’t have to think about it. In the past week, that deal was broken.
From my article in the Atlantic:
Last week, the whining noise of unmanned flying objects could be heard in the city of Moscow once again. On the morning of May 7, the mayor of Moscow announced that the Russian air force had shot down hundreds of Ukrainian drones aimed at the city. Two days later, Moscow was due to host Russia’s annual May 9 military parade, a celebration linked very intimately with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who revived this Soviet-era celebration of Stalin’s victory over Nazi Germany and his conquest of Europe.
Suddenly, and very publicly, Russian officials appeared nervous, afraid that their parade would be spoiled. The Russian foreign minister issued a threat, promising “no mercy,” whatever that means, if Ukrainians struck the parade. The Kremlin’s spokesman reassured Muscovites that security was tight because the “threat from the Kyiv regime” had already been taken into account. The Russian president even persuaded the American president to ask the Ukrainian president for a one-day ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky granted Putin’s wish, after Trump offered to broker an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war. Zelensky then issued a magnanimous, droll decree, formally granting Putin permission to hold the parade.
This is the decree:
All of this comes on top of weeks, even months, of disruption:
Three years after the first drones exploded over the Kremlin, and more than four years into a conflict that was supposed to be nothing more than a brief “special military operation,” Muscovites have no choice but to think about the war. Alleged security measures—some think they are a form of censorship—had already rendered cellphone coverage in Moscow and across Russia unreliable, at times non-existent. Although Russians already lost access to most forms of Western social media, in April the state cut access even to the Russian-built app Telegram, as well as many VPNs. Without public internet many physical systems, including ATMs, also stopped working. Ride apps don’t function either. These inconveniences come on top of high inflation and high interest rates that have weighed even on Russia’s wealthiest businesses and consumers for months.
The parade itself was shorter than previous years, with fewer foreign leaders and no tanks, missiles or heavy military equipment. Presumably no one wanted any large objects to be struck by a Ukrainian drone on Red Square. But I think this public display of anxiety reflects something deeper.
The carefully promoted cult of the Second World War started in Soviet times, but Putin has deepened and expanded it. The loss of the Soviet empire in 1989 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 created enormous nostalgia for 1945, and Putin has been promoting that nostalgia for more than two decades. During that time, he also built that nostalgia into the fabric of the city of Moscow and other cities across Russia, adding and expanding the monumental sculptures and brutalist memorials that glorify the heroic war dead.
Now, at last, the cult of the war has caught up with him. Putin knows he can’t live up to the mythology he created, and everyone else can see that too. His unnecessary, illegal, brutal war in Ukraine has already lasted longer than the Russian war against the Nazis, killing hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers and producing neither military nor political nor any other kind of success. On the contrary: He can’t even hold a parade in Moscow without fearing that the Ukrainians will disrupt it.
Plesae read the whole thing here (gift link):
“Something rather unusual is happening in Russia”
I can’t go to Moscow anymore, as I am a list of banned people. But a few foreign journalists still operate there. Remarkably, Steve Rosenberg of the BBC is one of them. On Saturday he published a short video which gives you a good feel for the Victory Parade:
He also recorded an episode of From Our Own Correspondent, a beloved BBC Radio program. In this short dispatch, he lists many of the unusual things he has noticed lately in Russia, including soldiers poking around manholes in the street, presumably looking for bombs. He’s very good on the growing paranoia and discontent, some of which I’ve heard about third hand but of course have not seen myself.
Listen here:
Kleptocracy Tracker
Continuing to monitor conflicts of interest, ostentatious emoluments, outright corruption and policy changes that will facilitate outright corruption. (Read my original article, Kleptocracy Inc and check out the SNF Agora Institute chart)
May 4
Trump asked longtime GOP fundraiser Meredith O’Rourke to solicit donations for his project to develop a new golf course and sculpture garden along the Potomac in Washington—opening a new avenue for donors to curry favor with the president.
Elon Musk settled an SEC lawsuit for $1.5 million, resolving accusations that he waited too long to disclose his initial Twitter share purchases in 2022. This represents a significant shift under the Trump administration. When the suit was originally filed during the Biden administration, the SEC sought full remuneration of the $150 million Musk gained from the delay.
May 5
Palm Beach County commissioners voted to rename Palm Beach International Airport after Trump at a cost of $5.5 million, which includes a trademark deal with the president’s companies to license his name and image.
May 6
Traders opened nearly $1 billion in crude oil short positions about an hour before an Axios report that the US and Iran were nearing a nuclear deal sent prices tumbling—the latest example of insiders profiting from advance knowledge of the news.
May 7
The US Air Force is planning to have the Qatari-gifted jumbo jet ready for Trump to use as Air Force One by July 4, in celebration of America’s 250th birthday, though there are also efforts to have the aircraft ready by the president’s birthday on June 14.
From a Viennese Bus
A friend of mine saw this in a bus in Vienna, advertising a speech I am making later this week. I will post it here, in due course.
Enjoy the good weather, if you are lucky enough to have it
Thats a great troll by Zelensky giving Russia "permission" to hold a parade. Although, it continues to strike me as bizarre that such a request is even given the light of day. Show me where the Russians deserve to be granted such grace, given the war itself and the way they have conducted themselves.
President Trump is afraid of an Iran nuclear bomb because the regime is oppressive,
Irrational, and untrustworthy. But if we look at North Korea, which has nuclear bombs,
they have never militarily attacked anyone. After they watched us defeat and execute Saddam Hussein they realized that nuclear bombs and long range missiles were their only defense against American attack. Now that Iran’s leaders have seen how America easily kidnapped the Venezuela president and assassinated the Iran leadership without first declaring war, they know that nuclear weapons are their only protection against future American military strikes. If they believe that nuclear material is their only guarantee against their own future assassinations, they can never give that up, no matter what. It is existential to them. You can forget about it.