The Strangest Week
From Hormuz to Budapest to DC, nothing makes sense
On Wednesday morning, a colleague asked if I thought that the American-Iranian ceasefire, which had been declared overnight, would hold. I shrugged. How can I know? How can anyone know? All of the decisions about this war are being taken, on the one hand, by an American president who has no strategy beyond his own gratification, as well as, on the other hand, by a secretive, extremist, fundamentalist Iranian regime whose leader may well be in a coma.
The “ceasefire” also followed weeks of contradictory statements. My colleague David Frum published a useful list:
On March 21, the president demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face the destruction of its electric power plants. Then, 48 hours later, he offered yet more threats but also more time. Then, still more threats—and another postponement, this time to April 6.
On March 28, Trump reassured Truth Social readers, “No, Trump is not losing his nerve on Iran”—the kind of thing a president says only when it very much looks as if he is losing his nerve.
On March 30, Trump threatened Iran’s desalination plants unless the strait was reopened, but he changed the April 6 deadline to a vague “immediately.”
On April 1, Trump claimed that Iran had asked for a cease-fire, and he also threatened to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.
On April 5, Easter Sunday, Trump called the Iranian leadership “crazy bastards”—and bumped back the deadline to the night of April 7.
On Monday, April 6, Trump threatened that all of Iran could be taken out in one night.
Then, on April 7, Trump made the most extreme statement that either he or any other American president has ever made. If you’ve read it already, read it again. It contains not just a genocidal threat but a premature statement of victory and a very high level of panic. It does not reflect any concern for the fate of ordinary Iranians. Once again, Trump is putting himself and his emotions at the center of the story.
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
Having threatened to wipe out Iran as a civilization on Tuesday, Trump then went on to declare, on Wednesday, a “great day for World Peace” and “the Golden Age of the Middle East.”
Since then, it has become clear that the Iranian regime is still in place, and is still planning to control shipping in the Gulf: “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s armed forces,” the foreign minister said. The Israelis are still conducting military operations in Lebanon. There are still drones flying around the Gulf states. The US is declaring victory, but so is Iran. As my colleague Nancy Youssef put it, “Among the president’s initial war goals—preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon; eliminating its ballistic-missile capabilities; laying the ground for a popular overthrow of the regime; and eradicating Iranian proxies in the Persian Gulf—none have been met.”
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the American Vice-President, JD Vance, chose this exact moment to appear at a campaign rally alongside the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. As I wrote last year, Orbán, after 16 years in power, has left his country in a mess:
Hungary is now one of the poorest countries, and possibly the poorest, in the European Union. Industrial production is falling year-over-year. Productivity is close to the lowest in the region. Unemployment is creeping upward. Despite the ruling party’s loud talk about traditional values, the population is shrinking. Perhaps that’s because young people don’t want to have children in a place where two-thirds of the citizens describe the national education system as “bad,” and where hospital departments are closing because so many doctors have moved abroad. Maybe talented people don’t want to stay in a country perceived as the most corrupt in the EU for three years in a row. Even the Index of Economic Freedom—which is published by the Heritage Foundation, the MAGA-affiliated think tank that produced Project 2025—puts Hungary at the bottom of the EU in its rankings of government integrity.
The re-election of Orbán would be bad for Hungarians and bad for Europe. Inside the EU, Orbán functions as a Russian puppet, blocking European aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. In telephone conversations with the Russian president, leaked to Bloomberg, the Hungarian prime minister can be heard telling the Russian president that he is a “mouse” to Putin’s “lion.” The Hungarian foreign minister also makes regular calls to his Russian counterpart after EU meetings. Given that Russian missiles are still killing Ukrainians every day, that Russian cyberattacks and sabotage continue to destablize Europe and that Russian propaganda still seeks to undermine European democracies, Vance’s mere presence in Budapest was deeply offensive to millions of Europeans.
It was also very strange. Vance, while interfering in Hungary’s election, baselessly condemned the EU for allegedly interfering in Hungary’s election. He talked about “faceless bureaucrats” from Brussels, a phrase borrowed from British politics that illustrates real ignorance. Important decisions in Brussels are taken by the political leaders of the 27 member states. During his speech, which you can watch below, Vance also peddled a myth that Hungary is under threat from “a small band of radicals” who hate Western civilization. But Peter Magyar, leader of Tisza, the large Hungarian opposition party, waves Hungarian flags and used to be a member of Orbán’s own party. Tisza is not some kind of revolutionary Marxist cell.
In truth, Vance knows little or nothing about the country he is visiting, and in this sense he resembles Trump. Like Trump, Vance is using American foreign policy for personal self-promotion. He knows that Orbán has symbolic importance to the autocratic far-right, especially in the US. Project 2025 was heavily influenced by the Hungarian example, as was the Trump administration’s assault on American universities. By paying homage to Europe’s leading autocratic populist, Vance is symbolically supporting those American projects. He has no more interest in the people of Hungary, their prosperity and well-being, than Trump has in the people of Iran. If he did, he would not be there at all.
I discussed all of this, and more, with Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Listen here:
A few days ago I also talked about European attitudes to the war in Iran, as well as Hungary, on Morning Joe:
Kleptocracy Tracker
Continuing to monitor conflicts of interest, ostentatious emoluments, outright corruption and policy changes that will facilitate outright corruption. (Read my original article, Kleptocracy Inc and check out the SNF Agora Institute chart)
March 27
Elon Musk—who has substantial business interests in India and the Middle East—joined a phone call between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the Iran war.
March 30
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s broker attempted to make a multimillion-dollar investment in BlackRock’s Defense Industrials Active ETF in the weeks leading up to the US attack on Iran.
The Trump administration has invested billions of dollars in mining firms, some of which are tied to White House allies with financial interests in those companies.
March 31
Trump told reporters that his Miami presidential library will likely include a luxury hotel on the property—transforming what is typically a nonprofit, educational venue into a profit-generating enterprise.
April 1
The Trump Organization is profiting from the 250th anniversary of America’s founding by selling “Trump 250” merchandise, including mugs and golf balls.
April 3
A drone company backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. is pitching its products to Middle Eastern militaries targeted by Iran, presenting an opportunity to profit from a war initiated by their father.
April 7
The Trump administration is retaining the $70 million private jet that Kristi Noem leased during her tenure as Secretary of Homeland Security, making it available for the personal use of the First Lady and other White House officials.
April 8
European steel maker ArcelorMittal donated tens of millions for dollars’ worth of steel for the White House ballroom, a contribution Trump mentioned last October just after he halved the tariffs applied to exports of automotive steel from the firm’s Canadian plant.
Villa Medici, Rome
Built on the site of what was once the villa of the Roman general Lucullus (117-56 B.C.), this Renaissance villa was acquired in 1576 by Ferdinando de’ Medici. The building now serves as the French Academy in Rome, and is an artists’ residence with working studios and display space. I went on a tour when in Rome a couple of weeks ago and marveled at the garden, the ornamental lemon trees, the conservatory with painted birds and plaster busts, the view of Rome from the top of the terrace. Unlike JD Vance, I love European civilization as it is. I am delighted that the architecture has been carefully preserved, and is still in regular use, thanks to the efforts of the European Union’s member states.
MY GUT HURTS WHEN I SENT MY CHECK TO THE IRS.
Madman Trump and his Republican followers are a disgrace. They disgust me and are not people I want to live with. They sadden and repulse me, and they support a government that seeks a dictator who talks about wiping out an entire population and sends billions of dollars to Israel, which has done to the Palestinians what Hitler did to the Jews. They also believe that a private army wearing face masks can seize people and deport them without any legal process. They are not my people; he is a mentally incompetent and disturbed man whom the Republicans are willing to accept and support. They like living in Trump's world, and I despise it.
I am a frightened man who spent the last week worried that the crazy man in the White House, who controls the largest army in the world, would destroy a country with a population of 90 million people. He is not my president; he is their president, the Republicans in our country who did not return to Washington when Trump declared his intent to commit war crimes. We talk about war crimes, but we go brain-dead about the genocide committed by Israel against the Palestinians.
Thinking that things will change after the next election is a false hope. We would have a slim majority over the Republicans, but they will still be around, ready to take back control in the next election. Their mentality will remain the same.
I have been hoping that my state of Massachusetts would find a way to help me avoid sending my money to a government I despise. But our governor has been hiding and avoiding her responsibility to protect her citizens.
It is scary to acknowledge that nearly half of this country accepts and supports this government, which functions as an operating dictatorship. But this is our world, this is our reality, and we have to make essential decisions about our future. The scary word that would resolve this condition has to be said and acknowledged: SECESSION. We can no longer be the United States of America, but we can be the Republican States of America and the Democratic States of America. Two countries coexisting next to each other. The Republican state could have a dictatorship, which could allow masked hoodlums to roam its streets, move toward a white Christian society, and reduce social services. Its dictator could remove it from NATO, support Israel, and construct monuments to himself. They seem very at ease with being ruled by billionaires and accept corruption. Go ahead and enjoy yourself. I want none of these conditions. Their armies will consist of soldiers from their states, not from the Democratic state.
I want nothing to do with the Republicans. They want to live in a world different from mine, so be it. I want nothing to do with them. They can have their world, their government, and their dictator.
I want a democratic country with a government that takes care of all its citizens by providing a national healthcare system, a reasonable retirement plan, housing, and social services for all. I want to support Ukraine and not support Israel. I want gun control, universal suffrage, respect for all, and religious freedom.
I do not want to have anything to do with Republicans. Again, SECESSION IS THE ONLY WAY.
To me, as one who ‘shared’ NYC with Donald Trump for over 40 years, the strange thing is that anyone who paid any attention at all to his life in NY should be surprised at all that is happening. That is not to say that each of his depredations was specifically predictable, but only that this utterly amoral malignant narcissist who spent his professional life seeking wealth, power, vengeance, avoidence of responsibility, obsessional media notice, sexual gratification, and social acceptance, when given the power of the presidency would attempt to bestride the country and the world like the brilliant colossus he imagined himself to be without any thought to the lives he would impact.
The really strange thing here is that any American who understood anything about human nature would assume this man to be the answer to anybody’s problems.