The Ukrainian officer gave us the clearest strategic insight of this war: attack the money, not the morale.
Russians absorb casualties the way authoritarian systems always do, by insulating the people who make decisions from the people who die. But revenue is different. Revenue reaches the oligarchs. Revenue funds the bribes that keep soldiers fighting and elites loyal. Cut the revenue and you cut the system at its actual load-bearing point. The Moscow refinery smoke is not symbolism. It is the physical result of a targeting doctrine built on an accurate model of how the regime actually works.
The Iran outcome is the same lesson running in reverse. A side that never developed a theory of what violence would change discovered, predictably, that it changed nothing. The Strait closed. The second move did not exist. And so the capitulation was dressed as victory and signed in a palace, because there was nothing else left to do.
One campaign was designed around the adversary's real incentive structure. The other was designed around the fantasy of what sufficient force would psychologically produce.
That asymmetry is the strategic story of this era. The people who win are the ones who model their adversaries as systems with specific pain thresholds, not as audiences waiting to be impressed.
I was on the train from Chopin Airport to Warszawa Centralna on Thursday and was discussing the way the war was changing in Ukraine when a young man from Ukraine enter the discourse extremely happy to show me the video of this explosion in Moscow. What a magnificent site it is to see Ukraine penetrating deep into Russian territory and striking at the heart of Moscow. Despite the excuses Putin offers along with his many western sycophants, this war is nothing more than Oligarchs and Putin protecting their wealth and power as democracy began to get too close to their western border. You can have Uncle Olek on one side of the border beginning to show Uncle Vlad on the other how much his life is improving whilst Vlad's life stays the same or worsens.
As for Iran, the details of the capitulation smell of an oncoming revelation that he has thrown the USA under the bus, as well as Israel, so that he and his family will be found to somehow benefit from the deal. I noticed the ever sycophantish Niall Ferguson discussed "US investment" in Iran as part of the surrender document. I'll be keen to hear your thoughts next time Anne :-) Be well.
The 'retrospectoscope' is always accurate; however, we do not live in a world where crystal balls are available. Therefore, we must depend on reliable, well reasoned and honest people to act as guides.
Anne is such an individual.
She presents the struggle of freedom v tyranny with a historical palette that embraces the fact that Ukraine, Poland and the rest of middle and eastern Europe have never really enjoyed political freedom so we have to be on guard for propagandists that wear sheep's clothing.
Ukraine has now proven it's capabilities and fealty to freedom and taken the bull by the horns and is in control of it's own destiny. The US republicans, dressed in sheep's clothing, are trying mightily to restrict Ukrainian arms in order to boost Putin's chances in his criminal war of conquest, but they are not succeeding.
The Ukrainian officer gave us the clearest strategic insight of this war: attack the money, not the morale.
Russians absorb casualties the way authoritarian systems always do, by insulating the people who make decisions from the people who die. But revenue is different. Revenue reaches the oligarchs. Revenue funds the bribes that keep soldiers fighting and elites loyal. Cut the revenue and you cut the system at its actual load-bearing point. The Moscow refinery smoke is not symbolism. It is the physical result of a targeting doctrine built on an accurate model of how the regime actually works.
The Iran outcome is the same lesson running in reverse. A side that never developed a theory of what violence would change discovered, predictably, that it changed nothing. The Strait closed. The second move did not exist. And so the capitulation was dressed as victory and signed in a palace, because there was nothing else left to do.
One campaign was designed around the adversary's real incentive structure. The other was designed around the fantasy of what sufficient force would psychologically produce.
That asymmetry is the strategic story of this era. The people who win are the ones who model their adversaries as systems with specific pain thresholds, not as audiences waiting to be impressed.
Johan
Iran briefly let a few ships through on Friday but I got a news alert that it’s closed again.
I was on the train from Chopin Airport to Warszawa Centralna on Thursday and was discussing the way the war was changing in Ukraine when a young man from Ukraine enter the discourse extremely happy to show me the video of this explosion in Moscow. What a magnificent site it is to see Ukraine penetrating deep into Russian territory and striking at the heart of Moscow. Despite the excuses Putin offers along with his many western sycophants, this war is nothing more than Oligarchs and Putin protecting their wealth and power as democracy began to get too close to their western border. You can have Uncle Olek on one side of the border beginning to show Uncle Vlad on the other how much his life is improving whilst Vlad's life stays the same or worsens.
As for Iran, the details of the capitulation smell of an oncoming revelation that he has thrown the USA under the bus, as well as Israel, so that he and his family will be found to somehow benefit from the deal. I noticed the ever sycophantish Niall Ferguson discussed "US investment" in Iran as part of the surrender document. I'll be keen to hear your thoughts next time Anne :-) Be well.
Anne applebaum as always standing up for democracy, thanks
The 'retrospectoscope' is always accurate; however, we do not live in a world where crystal balls are available. Therefore, we must depend on reliable, well reasoned and honest people to act as guides.
Anne is such an individual.
She presents the struggle of freedom v tyranny with a historical palette that embraces the fact that Ukraine, Poland and the rest of middle and eastern Europe have never really enjoyed political freedom so we have to be on guard for propagandists that wear sheep's clothing.
Ukraine has now proven it's capabilities and fealty to freedom and taken the bull by the horns and is in control of it's own destiny. The US republicans, dressed in sheep's clothing, are trying mightily to restrict Ukrainian arms in order to boost Putin's chances in his criminal war of conquest, but they are not succeeding.
Hope remains alive.
Bravo, Anne! But remember the words of that noted American philosopher, Lawrence (Yogi) Berra:
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"