Extremely important observations and not just about drones. It’s buried near the end: the front line may be evolving into a de facto demilitarized zone…not a ceasefire, not a peace treaty, but a technological fact. A geography of permanent mutual deterrence enforced by autonomous systems rather than political agreement.
This matters enormously. What Ukraine has built isn’t just a battlefield innovation. It’s a proof of concept for a new kind of territorial sovereignty. You don’t need NATO membership or a UN Security Council guarantee if you can make every square kilometer of contested ground too costly to cross.
Sovereignty, historically a legal and political construct, is becoming an engineering problem.
The Foreign Service lens here is clarifying. What we’re watching is the decoupling of security from alliance. For decades, the international order ran on the implicit logic that small states needed great power patrons. Ukraine—-abandoned by Washington, armed and adapted largely by its own civil society and European partners, is demonstrating that a sufficiently mobilized tech-literate society can manufacture its own deterrence. That’s a seismic shift in the structural logic of the state system.
Complications:
First, the Patriot missile constraint is serious. More Patriots were used in three days of U.S.-Iran conflict than Ukraine has used since 2022; that asymmetry has compounding effects on Ukraine’s ability to defend population centers while prosecuting the long-range war. The drone war Ukraine is winning and the missile war Ukraine is still absorbing are two different conflicts running simultaneously.
Second, the Gulf pivot is more significant than it reads. When Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia engage Zelensky not as a sympathetic victim but as a defense technology vendor, the entire frame of the conflict shifts. Ukraine is no longer the object of geopolitical charity. It’s a node in a new security market. That’s durable power.
Putin’s core bet in 2022 was that Ukraine wasn’t real. That it is not a nation, not a fighting force, not a society. Four years later, Ukraine is exporting its war technology to the Gulf. The bet has failed. The only question now is how long it takes Moscow’s elite to find an exit that doesn’t require admitting that plainly.
All of it, but particularly, the decoupling of alliance and security and the position in the world that Ukraine is defining for itself. I don’t take the costs of this war lightly—the loss of lives, the loss of the sense of security and safety, and the shock of betrayal from the US—but what Ukrainians are managing is truly remarkable. Their response of resilience and tenacity and innovation doesn’t come from a people or nation that doesn’t exist and doesn’t have its own identity.
I share your concern about the lack of Patriots for Ukraine. Only thing Ukraine can do is strike russian missile production plants and military bases which I'm sure have strong air defense systems. But then again, many of the russian air defense systems have been routed to protect Moscow and lil' putin's palace in Sochi.
Thank you for providing an insightful and well written analysis.
Thank you Anne. We need encouraging new about what we are facing here also. I am sure MBS and his money people were very aware of the smoke rising in St. Petersburg. They are now very appreciative of Zelinsky's offer or anti drone technolgy.
Thank you professor. I sincerely appreciate your engagement and political awareness from your perspective in Ukraine and in other countries where you analyze the situation. I fear this regime in the US is so chaotic and dangerous and under siege by ICE and other nefarious groups who are not in sync with our democratic values and rule of law
I have a small question. In 2025, after the berating Zelenskyy session in the WH, I started two recurring monthly donations (general and defining) and to Ukraine. Is anyone tracking how many of us in the US are doing that to compensate for the loss of our government’s support, and how much money that adds up to?
That sounds like a great idea but I haven't seen anything publicized. I support United24, the official funding site of the Ukrainian government and since its inception in May, 2022, its raised over $3.6 billion in donations world wide. Donors can contribute to military or humanitarian aid. It's one of the many programs worldwide that support Ukraine:
I have been donating monthly to United24 for Ukraine. I get updates regularly from them showing goals for specific equipment and what goals have been met. It appears they are doing well, and the aid is very appreciated. I think many Americans were so ashamed by that juvenile ambush at the White House that they opened their wallets as well as their hearts.
I think we need to spread the word about United24. I try to reference it in comments I made in other Substacks and in comments I make in national newspapers.
The juxtaposition of the Ukrainian People fighting against Russian tyranny on one continent and Russian puppet Trump and his stooges looting our country while proclaiming they are “patriots” is stark.
Thanks Anne, for keeping us informed about Ukraine. Also, the photos. I appreciate seeing life around the world.
I find it notable that the gulf states are absent in this edition of your Kleptocracy Tracker. I’ve been wondering about how they would respond to Trump’s excursion in their neighborhood. I’ve been speculating (imagining) that those who invested in his crypto schemes are pretty pissed that DJT not only got paid when they bought but will again if (when) they sell. I’m not versed enough on the region to even know who’s allied with whom and I haven’t heard any news that suggests full throttled approval. If anything, what I’ve heard is silence, which suggests things aren’t as they were between Trump and the gulf region.
I suppose I’m asking, how has the war in Iran impacted Trump’s relationships in the gulf? Is it business as usual for his family and the Witkoff’s? The other thing I see in this edition of Kleptocracy is that it’s dominated by the domestic side. Perhaps it’s too soon to tell, but I wonder if he’s flipping through his Rolodex and making enemies of his allies. There’s probably plenty of willing players, but at some point, maybe these people won’t risk their assets on him?
I totally agree that Ukraine has changed the momentum of the war through its ground war and through its medium and long range drone strikes designed to disrupt russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine and damage/destroy strategic russian assets outside Ukraine. I was surprised to learn about the psychological aspect of war that Ukraine is waging and appreciate Anne's insight into this aspect of the war. In the Atlantic article Anne quoted Kirill Budanov, head of the presidential office of Ukraine and former spy chief who said: “They (russian people) cannot understand why they have to keep fighting and why they are getting hit now, because they were told they were going to win and Ukraine is nothing.”
In his June 4 letter to lil' putin, President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine is bringing the war home to russia and that attacks on russia will increase. The Telegraph reported on June 7 that Zelenskyy said Ukraine is "very close' to developing a Ukrainian ballistic missile that can strike russia. So President Zelenskyy's tone and tenor has dramatically changed in 2026 and perhaps lil' putin will feel the pressure of anxious and angry russians and russian oligarchs demanding an end to the war.
Great analysis. Europe should start thinking of Ukraine not as a burden that must be borne but as the invaluable strategic asset that it has become, a regional superpower that borders Russia and Belarus and is not just a buffer but a credible, offense-capable counterweight to Russia threats. Europe should listen to Zelensky when he proposes a European security architecture that includes Ukraine. It can be NATO or a parallel structure; given the U.S. presence in NATO, the latter probably makes more sense. As of today, as the nation with the most battle-tested military, with the most advance war-making technology, Ukraine would be the pillar of that alliance.
Fascinating article. Long wars always lead to rapid technological progress. WWI saw aircraft develop rapidly as they were introduced into combat.
WWII advanced the development of radar, saw the building of the B29 Superfortress bomber with a pressurised cabin, the proximity fuse and atomic weapons. And of course, via Werner von Braun, the development of space rockets.
Who would have guessed that Ukraine would become the leading builder of low-cost defensive drones. Cost obviously matters a lot - judging by the quantity of Patriot missiles the US military has been forced into using in the past 3 months, and their high cost, the Ukrainian strategy would seem to be the more sensible.
Another great read Anne, thank you. Its been clear from reading news reports and speaking to UA friends that the battlefield has been changing rapidly in the last few months. To watch Russian soldiers surrender to an unmanned drone without a Ukrainian soldier in sight was surreal! I do, however, wish Zelensky had of picked any other name for his battalion than what he did. He's really upset a lot of people in Poland.
Chicken Soup for the soul…your very presence, your reporting, your integrity and grace…chicken soup for the soul as we walk these perilous times, together.
To add a bit of hope, US Senator Chris Murphy, book, “Crisis of the Common Good” provides important observations of this moment and leans into simple, principled suggestions to begin to turn the page…simple actions, reminiscent of the simple, normal, beautiful scenes depicted here in Kyiv…be kind, make and grow friendships and human, not robot, relationships, do selfless acts of kindness and model principled behavior…
The trustworthiness, rigor and clarity with which you do your work is remarkable and essential and comforting in dark times.
May turned out to be a banner month for Ukraine. Ukraine gained more territory than russia, 60 sq miles, (120 sq km) and since Jan' 2026, Ukraine has recaptured 231 sq miles (600 sq km) of territory. Ukraine struck 111 russian military-industrial, energy, and fuel infrastructure facilities that supply the russian army while causing $1.058 billion in economic damage to russia. I hope the trend will increase dramatically for the rest of the year:
On my first real FPV mission we flew around 6.5km - it was spring of 2024, around Kharkiv. Back then it was enough distance to even hit some tanks sometimes. On my last mission with that team somewhere in donetskay oblast we made 36 and found just a pickup truck in a bushes next to some houses on the skirts of a little village. It was 2025, spring, or maybe early summer.
Nof the Phoenix brigade are flying 103. Russians do a lot too. Zaporizhzha is now being hit by FPVs on daily basis.
Long range drones flying now like half of continent.
It’s crazy how range of everything grew through this war.
And now imagine how it’s hard to push this wide kill zone anywhere.
Anne, thank you for your books and support, your support is tangible.
Extremely important observations and not just about drones. It’s buried near the end: the front line may be evolving into a de facto demilitarized zone…not a ceasefire, not a peace treaty, but a technological fact. A geography of permanent mutual deterrence enforced by autonomous systems rather than political agreement.
This matters enormously. What Ukraine has built isn’t just a battlefield innovation. It’s a proof of concept for a new kind of territorial sovereignty. You don’t need NATO membership or a UN Security Council guarantee if you can make every square kilometer of contested ground too costly to cross.
Sovereignty, historically a legal and political construct, is becoming an engineering problem.
The Foreign Service lens here is clarifying. What we’re watching is the decoupling of security from alliance. For decades, the international order ran on the implicit logic that small states needed great power patrons. Ukraine—-abandoned by Washington, armed and adapted largely by its own civil society and European partners, is demonstrating that a sufficiently mobilized tech-literate society can manufacture its own deterrence. That’s a seismic shift in the structural logic of the state system.
Complications:
First, the Patriot missile constraint is serious. More Patriots were used in three days of U.S.-Iran conflict than Ukraine has used since 2022; that asymmetry has compounding effects on Ukraine’s ability to defend population centers while prosecuting the long-range war. The drone war Ukraine is winning and the missile war Ukraine is still absorbing are two different conflicts running simultaneously.
Second, the Gulf pivot is more significant than it reads. When Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia engage Zelensky not as a sympathetic victim but as a defense technology vendor, the entire frame of the conflict shifts. Ukraine is no longer the object of geopolitical charity. It’s a node in a new security market. That’s durable power.
Putin’s core bet in 2022 was that Ukraine wasn’t real. That it is not a nation, not a fighting force, not a society. Four years later, Ukraine is exporting its war technology to the Gulf. The bet has failed. The only question now is how long it takes Moscow’s elite to find an exit that doesn’t require admitting that plainly.
🐌Johan
Yeah. What he 👆said.
All of it, but particularly, the decoupling of alliance and security and the position in the world that Ukraine is defining for itself. I don’t take the costs of this war lightly—the loss of lives, the loss of the sense of security and safety, and the shock of betrayal from the US—but what Ukrainians are managing is truly remarkable. Their response of resilience and tenacity and innovation doesn’t come from a people or nation that doesn’t exist and doesn’t have its own identity.
I share your concern about the lack of Patriots for Ukraine. Only thing Ukraine can do is strike russian missile production plants and military bases which I'm sure have strong air defense systems. But then again, many of the russian air defense systems have been routed to protect Moscow and lil' putin's palace in Sochi.
Thank you for providing an insightful and well written analysis.
Slava Ukraini!
Thank you Anne. We need encouraging new about what we are facing here also. I am sure MBS and his money people were very aware of the smoke rising in St. Petersburg. They are now very appreciative of Zelinsky's offer or anti drone technolgy.
Thank you professor. I sincerely appreciate your engagement and political awareness from your perspective in Ukraine and in other countries where you analyze the situation. I fear this regime in the US is so chaotic and dangerous and under siege by ICE and other nefarious groups who are not in sync with our democratic values and rule of law
Thank you! So useful.
I have a small question. In 2025, after the berating Zelenskyy session in the WH, I started two recurring monthly donations (general and defining) and to Ukraine. Is anyone tracking how many of us in the US are doing that to compensate for the loss of our government’s support, and how much money that adds up to?
That sounds like a great idea but I haven't seen anything publicized. I support United24, the official funding site of the Ukrainian government and since its inception in May, 2022, its raised over $3.6 billion in donations world wide. Donors can contribute to military or humanitarian aid. It's one of the many programs worldwide that support Ukraine:
https://u24.gov.ua/
Slava Ukraini!
I have been donating monthly to United24 for Ukraine. I get updates regularly from them showing goals for specific equipment and what goals have been met. It appears they are doing well, and the aid is very appreciated. I think many Americans were so ashamed by that juvenile ambush at the White House that they opened their wallets as well as their hearts.
As a fellow contributor to United 24, I thank you!
Slava Ukraini!
Yes, I am contributing each month to the Ukrainian government funding site. That is what I meant.
As a fellow contributor to U24, I thank you!
Slava Ukraini!
To Robin's Nest and Paula:
I think we need to spread the word about United24. I try to reference it in comments I made in other Substacks and in comments I make in national newspapers.
Slava Ukraini!
The juxtaposition of the Ukrainian People fighting against Russian tyranny on one continent and Russian puppet Trump and his stooges looting our country while proclaiming they are “patriots” is stark.
Excellent thank you
Thanks Anne, for keeping us informed about Ukraine. Also, the photos. I appreciate seeing life around the world.
I find it notable that the gulf states are absent in this edition of your Kleptocracy Tracker. I’ve been wondering about how they would respond to Trump’s excursion in their neighborhood. I’ve been speculating (imagining) that those who invested in his crypto schemes are pretty pissed that DJT not only got paid when they bought but will again if (when) they sell. I’m not versed enough on the region to even know who’s allied with whom and I haven’t heard any news that suggests full throttled approval. If anything, what I’ve heard is silence, which suggests things aren’t as they were between Trump and the gulf region.
I suppose I’m asking, how has the war in Iran impacted Trump’s relationships in the gulf? Is it business as usual for his family and the Witkoff’s? The other thing I see in this edition of Kleptocracy is that it’s dominated by the domestic side. Perhaps it’s too soon to tell, but I wonder if he’s flipping through his Rolodex and making enemies of his allies. There’s probably plenty of willing players, but at some point, maybe these people won’t risk their assets on him?
I totally agree that Ukraine has changed the momentum of the war through its ground war and through its medium and long range drone strikes designed to disrupt russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine and damage/destroy strategic russian assets outside Ukraine. I was surprised to learn about the psychological aspect of war that Ukraine is waging and appreciate Anne's insight into this aspect of the war. In the Atlantic article Anne quoted Kirill Budanov, head of the presidential office of Ukraine and former spy chief who said: “They (russian people) cannot understand why they have to keep fighting and why they are getting hit now, because they were told they were going to win and Ukraine is nothing.”
In his June 4 letter to lil' putin, President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine is bringing the war home to russia and that attacks on russia will increase. The Telegraph reported on June 7 that Zelenskyy said Ukraine is "very close' to developing a Ukrainian ballistic missile that can strike russia. So President Zelenskyy's tone and tenor has dramatically changed in 2026 and perhaps lil' putin will feel the pressure of anxious and angry russians and russian oligarchs demanding an end to the war.
Slava Ukraini!
Great analysis. Europe should start thinking of Ukraine not as a burden that must be borne but as the invaluable strategic asset that it has become, a regional superpower that borders Russia and Belarus and is not just a buffer but a credible, offense-capable counterweight to Russia threats. Europe should listen to Zelensky when he proposes a European security architecture that includes Ukraine. It can be NATO or a parallel structure; given the U.S. presence in NATO, the latter probably makes more sense. As of today, as the nation with the most battle-tested military, with the most advance war-making technology, Ukraine would be the pillar of that alliance.
Fascinating article. Long wars always lead to rapid technological progress. WWI saw aircraft develop rapidly as they were introduced into combat.
WWII advanced the development of radar, saw the building of the B29 Superfortress bomber with a pressurised cabin, the proximity fuse and atomic weapons. And of course, via Werner von Braun, the development of space rockets.
Who would have guessed that Ukraine would become the leading builder of low-cost defensive drones. Cost obviously matters a lot - judging by the quantity of Patriot missiles the US military has been forced into using in the past 3 months, and their high cost, the Ukrainian strategy would seem to be the more sensible.
Necessity is the mother of invention for Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
Anne applebaum standing up with facts for democracy, the sad part is if Trump hadn't went awol on Ukraine they could have won the war by now.
Another great read Anne, thank you. Its been clear from reading news reports and speaking to UA friends that the battlefield has been changing rapidly in the last few months. To watch Russian soldiers surrender to an unmanned drone without a Ukrainian soldier in sight was surreal! I do, however, wish Zelensky had of picked any other name for his battalion than what he did. He's really upset a lot of people in Poland.
Chicken Soup for the soul…your very presence, your reporting, your integrity and grace…chicken soup for the soul as we walk these perilous times, together.
To add a bit of hope, US Senator Chris Murphy, book, “Crisis of the Common Good” provides important observations of this moment and leans into simple, principled suggestions to begin to turn the page…simple actions, reminiscent of the simple, normal, beautiful scenes depicted here in Kyiv…be kind, make and grow friendships and human, not robot, relationships, do selfless acts of kindness and model principled behavior…
The trustworthiness, rigor and clarity with which you do your work is remarkable and essential and comforting in dark times.
THANK YOU!’n
May turned out to be a banner month for Ukraine. Ukraine gained more territory than russia, 60 sq miles, (120 sq km) and since Jan' 2026, Ukraine has recaptured 231 sq miles (600 sq km) of territory. Ukraine struck 111 russian military-industrial, energy, and fuel infrastructure facilities that supply the russian army while causing $1.058 billion in economic damage to russia. I hope the trend will increase dramatically for the rest of the year:
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-may-battlefield-gains-in-numbers-19605
Slava Ukraini!
On my first real FPV mission we flew around 6.5km - it was spring of 2024, around Kharkiv. Back then it was enough distance to even hit some tanks sometimes. On my last mission with that team somewhere in donetskay oblast we made 36 and found just a pickup truck in a bushes next to some houses on the skirts of a little village. It was 2025, spring, or maybe early summer.
Nof the Phoenix brigade are flying 103. Russians do a lot too. Zaporizhzha is now being hit by FPVs on daily basis.
Long range drones flying now like half of continent.
It’s crazy how range of everything grew through this war.
And now imagine how it’s hard to push this wide kill zone anywhere.
Anne, thank you for your books and support, your support is tangible.